Well bounce rate does play a factor indeed, but a lot of the fluctuations are because you are new.
One way to improve your bounce rate is to break down your site with questions like webmaster did on his easysiteguide site. "Are you a beginner? If so click here" or "Are you advanced and want to learn X, Y and Z then click here" I don't know much about PHP so I'm not sure what the best breakdown would be but it may help people find what they're looking for.
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